UFC 130: Rampage vs. Hamill Preview & Predictions
Though the UFC is returning to Las Vegas this weekend with its latest pay per view, considering the card’s seemingly cursed history of competitors having to withdraw, it’s any wonder that UFC 130 has shaped up as well as it has. In addition to losing both headliners Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard to injury, and forcing them out of their highly anticipated rubber match for the UFC Lightweight Championship, Thiago Silva was pulled from his bout with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson due to a suspension, and Brad Pickett, Norifumi Yamamoto, Bart Palaszewski and Ultimate Fighter 12 alumni Cody McKenzie were all forced to withdraw from their fights due to injury. That said, UFC 130 is still ridiculously high on talent and features a variety of unique stylistic match-ups which include some seven former UFC, WEC, Sengoku & IFL champions. Here’s how things are shaping up:
Main Card:
Light Heavyweight: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (Age: 32, Height: 6’1″, Reach: 73″, Record: 31-8) vs. Matt Hamill (Age: 34, Height: 6’1″, Reach: 76″, Record: 10-2)
While it’s highly unlikely that “Rampage” is overlooking Hamill, who as previously mentioned is substituting for Silva, it is quite possible that he is going to come out strong, looking to end the fight quickly. Following a controversial decision win over Lyoto Machida which preceded a decision loss to Rashad Evans, Jackson’s future as a top-tier Light Heavyweight contender might rest on not only his ability to get beyond Hamill, but to do so convincingly. The single most important factor that he’s up against however is that the multiple time Fight of the Night winner has evolved into a far more advanced fighter than he was when he first entered the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter roughly five years ago. While still an elite wrestler, Hamill has since developed his striking to a point where he poses legitimate knock-out power, leaving him a serious threat every time he steps into the ring.
While failing to finish his last opponent, Hamill did win convincingly over Tito Ortiz at UFC 121, combining his grappling prowess with his ever-developing strikes; if he were to approach Jackson in a similar matter he might be able to wear the former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion down, but if Jackson’s history with wrestlers such as Matt Lindland and Dan Henderson still holds any weight, he might be able to remain in control and dictate where the match ends up. That, and if his recent interview on the Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson is any indication, “Rampage” has a little extra incentive to end things as quickly as possible, “I’m hoping to end it fast… I’m actually lookin’ forward to going to the club and drinking.”
Prediction: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson via Round 2 TKO
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Heavyweight: Frank Mir (Age: 32, Height: 6’3″, Reach: 79″, Record: 14-5) vs. Roy Nelson (Age: 34, Height: 6’0″, Reach: 73″, Record: 15-5)
It isn’t quite appropriate to call Frank Mir’s past few years in the UFC spotty, but even if you’re only as good as your last fight (or last win, even), it’s hard to believe that the former Heavyweight Champion is on track for another title run any time soon. Defeating the legendary Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic with less than a minute to go at UFC 119 still ultimately lent the victory little excitement, Bloody Elbow‘s Jonathan Snowden calling it “One of the worst displays in the history of MMA main events.”
Unlike Mir, Nelson is not coming off of a win in his last fight as he suffered a decision defeat to current Ultimate Fighter coach Junior dos Santos. The key separation between these fights was that while the Nelson/dos Santos bout was a solid scrap, and one which certainly emphasized Nelson’s ability to take a beating and come back, such a statement cannot be said about Mir/”Cro Cop.” Additionally, while Mir might hold an advantage on the ground, he won’t be the only Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt when it comes time to step into the ring; something which might end up preventing him from taking complete control away from Nelson. When compounding that with Nelson’s wildcard mystique and the fact that he’s never been submitted, it’s hard to believe that the match might not take an unexpected turn.
Prediction: Roy Nelson via Decision
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Heavyweight: Stefan Struve (Age: 23, Height: 6’11″, Reach: 83″, Record: 21-4) vs. Travis Browne (Age: 29, Height: 6’7″, Reach: 78″, Record: 10-0-1)
Stefan Struve is one of the most unlikely looking fighters in the UFC, yet he’s also one of the best young talents. At 6’11″ the kickboxer has elevated himself through not only his fighting (5-2 in the UFC, his only losses have come to Junior dos Santos and Roy Nelson) but his engaging personality. All things told though he’s still facing an undefeated 6’7″ beast in Travis Browne; a beast who didn’t exactly fight to impress in his last bout, however, yielding an unimpressive draw against Cheick Kongo at UFC 120. Though entirely different competitors, Browne is close to the same size as Sean McCorkle (also 6’7″, also pushing the upper limits of the weight class), who Struve last defeated at UFC 124, which suggests that the size isn’t going to be anything new for the young Dutch fighter. In the end it could come down to simply whether or not the match ends up on the ground, because if it does Struve’s 25 fights and submission work might be too much for the Hawaiian native to overcome.
Prediction: Stefan Struve via Round 1 Submission
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Middleweight: Brian Stann (Age: 30, Height: 6’1″, Reach: 74″, Record: 10-3) vs. Jorge Santiago (Age: 30, Height: 6’1″, Reach: n/a, Record: 23-8)
A lot of has been made of Jorge Santiago not being an appropriate opponent for Brian Stann considering it’s his first fight in the UFC (since 2006) and Stann is coming off of an impressive TKO victory against Chris Leben. There is a point to that, but Santiago is hardly a rookie and hardly a pushover. A former Sengoku Middleweight Champion and former Strikeforce Middleweight Grand Prix Champion, Santiago will be stepping up for his thirty-second match since 2002. That said, it will be his first bout to be held outside of Japan since 2007, under rules which differ from those used in the UFC, which could be a huge factor in determining how comfortable he is in the Octagon.
In a recent pre-fight interview for UFC.com, Santiago explained that while he believes Stann feels most comfortable on his feet, he remains confident that he has superior wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu abilities. There he might be correct; Stann’s last loss came at UFC 109 to a blossoming Phil Davis, largely due to Stann’s inability to match the wrestler’s ground control. Cagewriter‘s Steve Cofield went as far as saying that Stann looked like “an amateur on the ground,” but that doesn’t mean that he hasn’t had a year and a half to work on that realm of his game. It will be tight — certainly a match with instant Fight of the Night ability — but if Stann is able to keep things on the feet as he did with Leben, he is far too capable of using his superior striking to dominate.
Prediction: Brian Stann via Round 1 TKO
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Welterweight: Thiago Alves (Age: 27, Height: 5’9″, Reach: 70″, Record: 18-7) vs. Rick Story (Age: 26, Height: 5’10″, Reach 71″, Record: 12-3)
To this point, there has been little to discredit Thiago Alves’ career: Even his inability to defeat George St-Pierre and Jon Fitch can hardly be held against him, despite actually failing to make weight against the latter. Those two bouts stand as his only losses since previously losing to Fitch in June of 2006; after which he went on a seven fight winning streak where he overcame the likes of Chris Lytle, Hall of Famer Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck. That said, much like “Rampage,” he is a superior striker who has a lot to lose at this point in his career if he doesn’t come out of the gate firing. This makes the match-up against Rick Story interesting because of the latter’s fierce wrestling competency and his ability to mesh that with aggressive stand-up and solid submissions (see: Story’s shoot-out with Brian Foster which ended in an impressive arm triangle choke, subsequently kicking off a five fight win streak of his own). That fight is also important as it showed off Story’s ability to take a beating; Brian Foster is no Thiago Alves however, and certainly not close to him in terms of Alves’ brutal Muay Thai striking. Taking into account Alves’ lack of issues with weight recently and he shouldn’t end up gassing if the match takes on a rapid pace early.
Prediction: Alves via Round 3 TKO
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Preliminary Card (Spike TV):
Bantamweight: Miguel Torres (Age: 30, Height: 5’10″, Reach: 76″, Record: 39-3) vs. Demetrious Johnson (Age: 24, Height: 5’3″, Reach: n/a, Record: 9-1)
Middleweight: Kendall Grove (Age: 28, Height: 6’6″, Reach: 79″, Record: 12-8, w. 1 n/c) vs. Tim Boetsch (Age: 30, Height: 6’0″, Reach: n/a, Record: 12-4)
Preliminary Card (Facebook):
Lightweight: Gleison Tibau (Age: 27, Height: 5’10″, Reach: 72″, Record: 22-7) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (Age: 29, Height: 5’8″, Reach: n/a, Record: 14-3)
Bantamweight: Michael McDonald (Age: 20, Height: 5’8″, Reach: n/a, Record: 12-1) vs. Chris Cariaso (Age: 29, Height: 5’3, Reach: n/a, Record: 11-2)
Bantamweight: Renan Barão (Age: 24, Height: 5’6″, Reach: n/a, Record: 25-1, w. 1 n/c) vs. Cole Escovedo (Age: 29, Height: 5’7″, Reach: n/a, Record: 17-6)
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UFC 130 will be held Saturday, May 28 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Preliminary bouts will begin at 6:00 PM (Pacific)/9:00 PM (Eastern). Information on how and where to order the event can be found at UFC.com.